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FRIDAY, July 31, 2020 (HealthDay News) — Symptom-based screening alone is not sufficient to contain a COVID-19 outbreak on college campuses, according to a study published online July 31 in JAMA Network Open<\/i>.<\/p>\n
A. David Paltiel, Ph.D., from the Yale School of Public Health in New Haven, Connecticut, and colleagues performed an analytic modeling study that included a hypothetical cohort of 4,990 students without severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and 10 with undetected, asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection at the start of the semester. Screening performance standards were evaluated.<\/p>\n
The researchers found that assuming reproductive numbers of 2.5 and daily screening with 70 percent sensitivity, a test with 98 percent specificity yielded 162 cumulative student infections and a mean isolation dormitory daily census of 116 with 21 true-positive students (18 percent). Reducing screening to every two days resulted in 243 cumulative infections and a mean daily isolation census of 76, with 28 true-positive students (37 percent). In the last scenario, decreasing screening to every seven days yielded 1,840 cumulative infections and a mean daily isolation census of 121 students, with 108 true-positive students (90 percent). Test frequency was more strongly associated with cumulative infection than test sensitivity across all scenarios. Symptom-based screening alone was not sufficient to contain an outbreak under any of the scenarios. For a reproductive number of 2.5, 3.5, or 1.5, respectively, testing every two, one, or seven days was most cost-effective, with screening costs of $470, $910, or $120, respectively, per student per semester.<\/p>\n
“The safe reopening of campuses in fall 2020 may require screening every two days, uncompromising vigilance, and continuous attention to good prevention practices,” the authors write.<\/p>\n
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