Model accurately predicts hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with HCV-related cirrhosis with SVR to DAAs<\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter<\/b>
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THURSDAY, Dec. 5, 2024 (HealthDay News) — Among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis with sustained virological response (SVR) to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), a serum protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II)-based model is accurate for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk, according to a study published online Nov. 21 in Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics<\/em>.<\/p>\n Gian Paolo Caviglia, Ph.D., from the University of Turin in Italy, and colleagues developed and validated a PIVKA-II-based model for HCC risk stratification in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis with SVR to DAAs. Data were included for 1,220 patients (Turin cohort, 531; Pisa cohort, 335; and Milan cohort, 354).<\/p>\n The researchers derived a model including PIVKA-II combined with age, sex, alanine transaminase, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, platelet count, albumin, and total bilirubin from the training cohort (Turin + Pisa), with a C-index of 0.72. The models showed a C-index of 0.71 in the validation cohort (Milan), with an area under the curve of 0.84 for identifying patients who developed HCC within 12 months of follow-up. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 2.7, 4.0, and 14.3 percent in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups when the patients were categorized into three risk categories. In the low-risk group, no HCC occurred within three years of follow-up.<\/p>\n “Our model allowed the identification of patients at low risk of HCC development that may not need surveillance, reducing costs and harms from surveillance,” the authors write.<\/p>\n Several authors disclosed ties to the pharmaceutical industry.<\/p>\n