Model predicts smoldering multiple myeloma or worse among patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance<\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter<\/b><\/p>\n
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MONDAY, April 1, 2024 (HealthDay News) — A recently developed multivariable model can accurately predict smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) or worse in persons with presumed monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), according to a study published online April 2 in the Annals of Internal Medicine<\/em>.<\/p>\n Elias Eythorsson, M.D., Ph.D., from the University of Iceland in Reykjavik, and colleagues developed a multivariable prediction model that predicts the probability that a person with presumed MGUS has 10 percent or greater bone marrow plasma cells (SMM or worse by bone marrow criteria) to inform the decision to obtain a bone marrow sample. In addition, performance of the prediction model was compared to performance of the Mayo Clinic risk stratification model. The study included 1,043 adults with immunoglobulin G (IgG), IgA, light-chain, and biclonal MGUS and an interpretable bone marrow sample.<\/p>\n The researchers found that the C-statistic was 0.85 for SMM or worse, and calibration was excellent. Sensitivity and specificity were 86 and 67 percent, respectively, at a threshold of 10 percent predicted risk for SMM or worse; positive and negative predictive values were 32 and 96 percent, respectively. Across a range of plausible low-risk thresholds, the net benefit for the decision to refer for sampling was 0.13 to 0.30 higher compared with the Mayo Clinic model.<\/p>\n “Persons with predicted risks below the relevant low-risk threshold could safely defer bone marrow sampling and be managed by primary care physicians as presumed MGUS,” the authors write.<\/p>\n Abstract\/Full Text (subscription or payment may be required)<\/a><\/p>\n <\/i><\/p>\n