Burden is projected to continue increasing through 2050, and is related to sociodemographic index
By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter
MONDAY, March 17, 2025 (HealthDay News) — The global burden of diabetic nephropathy increased from 1990 to 2021, and is projected to continue increasing to 2050, according to a study published online Feb. 21 in Frontiers in Endocrinology.
Xiao Ma, from The Third People’s Hospital of Chengdu in China, and colleagues used data from 1990 to 2021 to analyze the trends and future projections of the worldwide burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) caused by type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus based on the Global Burden of Disease Study. Trends in the burden of each disease subtype and different regions were calculated using Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs).
The researchers found that the burden of diabetic nephropathy and its EAPCs varied significantly across different sociodemographic index subgroups of countries and regions worldwide. There was also significant variability seen in the influence of different age groups and metabolic factors on the burden of diabetic nephropathy. There was a positive correlation observed for the effects of metabolic factors on the number of deaths and mortality with age. Different metabolic factors have different effects on the mortality of CKD due to type 1 diabetes and CKD due to type 2 diabetes. The global burden of diabetic nephropathy is predicted to continue increasing in the absence of interventions from 2022 t0 2050 based on the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model.
“In the absence of interventions, the global burden of diabetic nephropathy is projected to continue to rise annually from 2022 to 2050, placing even greater stress on the global health system in the future,” the authors write.
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